OUR PICK STANDARDS

Know what you are paying for.

A selective game-market research board—not a promise of daily winners. Membership gives you access to analysis, not a guaranteed number of bets.

Qualified is a checklist, not a guarantee

Qualified selections must clear the applicable model checks, have at least three matching sportsbook quotes and at least +2.5% estimated expected value. Favorite prices cannot be shorter than -130. Plus-money selections must still clear the model screens. SharpSignal’s best-pick feature chooses only from qualified, upcoming selections; it returns no pick when none qualify.

A grade is not a win probability

Grades summarize estimated expected value: A+ at 6% or above; A at 4.5% to below 6%; A− at 2.5% to below 4.5%; B+ at 1% to below 2.5%; B at 0% to below 1%; C+ at -2.5% to below 0%; C below -2.5%. A high grade can still be a lean if other checks fail. Estimated probability is shown separately.

Model versus market

MLB, WNBA, NHL and UFC moneylines use statistical projections when sufficient inputs are available. WNBA projections use WeHoop possession-adjusted offense and defense, recent form, pace, effective shooting, turnovers, rebounding, free-throw rate, home/away splits, rest and player-impact availability; estimates are blended conservatively with the no-vig sportsbook market. WNBA selections require at least eight completed games per team, verified availability and three matching books to qualify. NHL projections use fastRhockey team box scores, blending current and prior-season scoring, shot generation and suppression, shooting and team save rates, recent form, special-teams goal margin, possession proxies and home/away performance. NHL selections require at least eight current-season games per team, three matching books and both starting goalies confirmed through the licensed SportsDataIO goalie feed to qualify. UFC moneyline projections use a regularized, symmetric model trained on pre-2024 TidyTuesday bouts and checked chronologically against separate 2024 and 2025–2026 samples. Inputs include record, experience, age, height, reach, significant-strike output and accuracy, takedown and submission rates, and finish profile. The statistical probability receives only a 10% weight against the multi-book no-vig market because it did not decisively outperform sportsbook prices by itself. Both fighters need at least five recorded fights, at least 72% paired-field coverage, a fighter snapshot no older than 180 days and three matching books for a moneyline to qualify. Qualified NFL selections use nflverse EPA per play, offensive and defensive efficiency, scoring and recent form, pace, turnover margin, rest and schedule-weather context after both teams have at least four completed games. Qualified CFB moneyline and spread selections use CollegeFootballData pregame win probability, SP+ and CORE when available; current Elo and completed-game scoring form provide the supported fallback after both teams have a meaningful sample. NFL, NHL, UFC and CFB estimates are blended conservatively with the no-vig sportsbook market. CFB totals and UFC round totals remain sportsbook-consensus research and cannot qualify. Additional matchup context does not change a probability unless explicitly stated.

Prices have a timestamp

The board uses shared feed snapshots, typically refreshed hourly, while your page checks for updates every five minutes. These are not streaming or guaranteed executable prices. Compare the exact selection, number and price with your sportsbook before betting. A changed line changes the value. Provider outages may leave only comparison markets or leans.

No forced picks

Leans are research only and are not promoted by the best-pick feature. AI recommendations stop five minutes before the listed start. UFC providers may supply a shared card start rather than individual bout times; once that cutoff passes, the AI does not assume an unconfirmed bout is still pre-fight.

Performance evidence

Members can view the new results history and download the complete record. It saves the first qualified featured pick per event and model version, starting at the ledger’s launch. One unit is risked per recorded pick. Pushes count in the ROI stake total; pending and review records do not. Earlier tracking is excluded. Recording happens on member-triggered board refresh, and final-score checks run when results are opened. UFC and ambiguous results remain unresolved rather than being assigned a win or loss.

A profitable live record for this version has not been established. Historical score-only research—including the UFC chronological holdout—is model validation, not a betting record, and does not establish returns at available odds. We will not present those results as member winnings. Demonstrating an edge requires recorded pre-event selections, actual prices, settled results and out-of-sample evaluation—including losses.

WNBA statistical and player-impact data is derived from WeHoop/SportsDataverse release datasets and modified into Sharplytics projections. WeHoop is licensed under MIT and does not sponsor or endorse Sharplytics.

NFL statistical data is derived from nflverse data, licensed under CC BY 4.0, and modified into Sharplytics projections. nflverse does not sponsor or endorse Sharplytics.

UFC historical bouts and fighter profiles are derived from the R for Data Science TidyTuesday UFC release and modified into Sharplytics moneyline projections. The TidyTuesday repository is distributed under CC0 1.0. R for Data Science, TidyTuesday, fightr and UFC do not sponsor or endorse Sharplytics. Sharplytics does not run the unofficial Dave's Analytics UFC scraper against UFCStats.

NHL statistical data is derived from fastRhockey/SportsDataverse team-box-score release datasets and modified into Sharplytics projections. The SportsDataverse release repository is distributed under the MIT License and does not sponsor or endorse Sharplytics. Projected and confirmed NHL starters are checked through SportsDataIO. GoaliePost can be used as a manual secondary check, but its webpage is not scraped or treated as an automated Sharplytics data feed. MoneyPuck data is not ingested because its free-data permission is limited to non-commercial use; a separately approved commercial license would be required before it could be activated on this paid service.

Betting involves the risk of losing your stake. Do not chase losses or treat a grade as certainty.